Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Obama's impending impeachment

Philip Bumps assessment of "Obama's Options on Default:Impeached if You Do, Impeached if You Don't", does not press the claim made in its title. If I were a betting man, though, I'd put money on it. John Boehner is unlikely  to develop the requisite personal qualities to risk his Speakership by putting the Senate's latest proposal up for a vote. Certainly not before the Thursday deadline for the U.S. to pay its bills (ok, before the Treasury runs out of money to pay its bills). Despite his past protestations to the contrary, Obama will need to issue an executive order to avert default. This would likely be based  on the 14th Amendment's public debt clause. Although the courts probably wouldn't hear a challange to this move - you would have to have suffered an injury as a result of this move to have "standing" to bring a suit (and the dispute would probably be regarded as a "Political Question" by the courts) - the House would waste no time in drawing up and passing articles of impeachment for President Obama. Of course there would be no conviction in the Senate; the House knows this. Which illustrates the underlying forces: The House Republican caucus members have no incentive to govern. They do have an incentive to return to their districts come primary time and sing to the heavens of their part in Impeaching President Obama, thus protecting their right flank and completing the almost-ritual of shutting down the government under a Democratic President before their second-term impeachment.